D-Wave Quantum stock is priced at 361 times its trailing sales, a multiple significantly higher than the 199 times sales recorded in mid-2025. This valuation persists despite the shares losing 64.8% over the past twelve months, a period in which the S&P 500 returned 16.5%. Investors are currently assigning the company a value of approximately $4.5 billion against $12.4 million in sales from the last four quarters.
The premium price tag reflects a market expectation that revenue will rise sharply once the company ships its hardware. However, recent financials show the underlying business struggling. Sales for the four quarters ending in June 2026 fell 44.2% year-over-year to $12.4 million. Operating losses widened to $171 million over that same period, up from a $78.7 million loss a year earlier. Consequently, buyers are paying more for each dollar of current sales than they were in mid-2025.
D-Wave’s revenue model relies heavily on selling entire machines. In fiscal 2025, system sales generated $16.2 million of the company’s $24.6 million total revenue. Management stated on an August call that its annealing systems are priced between $20 million and $40 million, with revenue from a single sale often booked over several quarters. A single system at the lower end of that price range would exceed the company's entire sales figure for the last four quarters. At current prices, the market is effectively paying for system sales that have not yet occurred.
For the September quarter, analysts expect revenue of about $4.4 million, compared with $3.1 million in the June quarter. Management guided for only a modest increase from the second quarter on an August 6, 2026 call. This creates a gap where analysts expect performance better than management described. Management anticipates most of the year's revenue will arrive in the fourth quarter, when two annealing quantum computer systems are likely to ship.
The company’s backlog, which represents contracted revenue not yet delivered, reached $40.7 million by the end of June, rising from $5.3 million in the prior year. Management projects that $23.2 million of this amount will be recognized as revenue within the next twelve months. This figure is less than the cost of two systems at the low end of the price range, indicating that the current backlog does not fully cover both expected fourth-quarter shipments.
D-Wave is expected to report its fiscal Q3 2026 results in November 2026. Historically, the stock has been volatile around earnings releases, moving between a 6.0% fall and a 4.0% gain over the two trading days following its last six reports. The shares rose after four of those reports and fell after two.
The stock has also shown higher volatility than the broader market during recent shocks. During the 2025 US Tariff Shock, D-Wave stock fell 29.0%, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) dropped 19.0%. The November report will test whether September-quarter revenue meets analyst expectations or aligns with management's more conservative guidance.