Vistra management expects to earn roughly $700 million in adjusted EBITDA from power contracts with Meta and the pending acquisition of Cogentrix. This amount is not included in the company's current 2027 guidance, which ranges from $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion.
The power producer has signed long-term agreements with major electricity users, including Meta and a Texas data center project, despite its stock losing 28.4% over the past year. During that same period, the S&P 500 returned 17.4%.
Customers are paying for electricity from plants Vistra already operates. On an August 7, 2026, earnings call, management stated that large load customers prefer to contract at a premium with existing facilities because this option costs less than new construction.
Vistra's nuclear sites in the PJM market illustrate this dynamic. Meta signed long-term power purchase agreements for these locations, and management expects to receive a premium above market rates under those terms.
In Texas, New Era Energy & Digital signed a 20-year agreement in September with a Vistra affiliate to power the first phase of its Texas Critical Data Center. The contract covers a minimum of 200 megawatts. Additionally, Vistra has become a founding investor in Helix Digital Infrastructure alongside KKR, NVIDIA, and the Kuwait Investment Authority, securing its role as the preferred power partner for the venture.
The $700 million gain combines the Meta premium and the Cogentrix purchase. If added to the midpoint of Vistra's 2027 guidance range, this extra amount would lift earnings by about 9%. Part of that increase comes from buying Cogentrix rather than from the power contracts alone.
This potential gain is significant for a stock trading at 22.7 times its earnings over the past twelve months, a multiple close to the S&P 500's 22.9.
However, base power prices in Texas are weakening. Management noted that current forward prices in ERCOT, the Texas power market, are meaningfully lower than the prices on October 31, 2025, which formed the basis for the 2027 guidance range. Higher prices in PJM and Vistra's hedges do not fully offset this decline, so management expects 2027 results to trend toward the lower end of the guidance range.
Texas data centers also face scrutiny regarding audits and possible delays. When asked about these issues on the August call, management said it supports the governor's talks with the data center community.
Vistra will provide an updated 2027 adjusted EBITDA range with its third-quarter report, expected on or around November 6, 2026.