Ukrainian drone attacks have reduced Russian diesel exports by more than 75 percent, effectively ending a deal to increase fuel supplies to the global market. Kyiv has resumed strikes on Russian oil infrastructure after abandoning an energy ceasefire declared by President Donald Trump in October.
More than 1,000 Ukrainian drones targeted Russia on Sunday, according to state media reports. The strikes ignited an oil export terminal in St. Petersburg, the hometown of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Tatiana Mitrova, an expert on the Russian oil industry at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, said the attacks have achieved a scale and effectiveness that has crippled Russia's diesel exports. Before these strikes, Russia was the second-largest diesel supplier in the world after the United States.
Data from Kpler shows that Russian diesel exports fell to 141,000 barrels per day in September, down from 608,000 barrels per day in the same period last year. Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, stated that it seems unlikely Russia will restore the diesel volumes discussed in diplomatic talks without an energy ceasefire. Moscow initially banned exports in July to preserve domestic supplies but partially resumed shipments this month to fulfill the agreement with Trump.
The agreement aimed to relieve pressure on surging fuel prices. The Kremlin agreed to supply about 75,000 barrels per day in October and 124,000 barrels per day in November. However, Mitrova noted that these volumes are a rounding error compared with total demand. Ukrainian drone swarms now number in the hundreds, compared with dozens earlier in the war, and strike deeper into Russian territory. In July, Kyiv hit the Omsk refinery in Siberia, more than 1,000 miles from Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces have also learned to target complex refinery equipment that is difficult to repair. Mitrova explained that while a destroyed fuel tank takes weeks to fix, replacing a secondary refining unit requires supply chains outside Russia. She noted that securing this equipment quickly is not possible because counterparties are violating sanctions. Mitrova added that if specific equipment is destroyed, the wait time for replacement can extend to several months.
With midterm elections approaching, Trump has blamed Ukraine for surging diesel prices that jeopardize Republican chances. According to AAA, diesel cost $6.32 per gallon on average Tuesday, nearly 75 percent above the same period last year. The market faces additional pressure from Trump's conflict with Iran, which began in late February. Attacks by Tehran and Houthi allies on oil infrastructure have disrupted Middle East fuel exports. Smith said diesel exports through the Strait of Hormuz are down about 540,000 barrels per day compared with last year, contributing to a global drop of about 1 million barrels per day.
The International Energy Agency warned this month that diesel supplies will likely remain constrained well into 2027. U.S. refiners are already working at maximum capacity to fill the gap left by damaged refining capacity from two ongoing wars. Smith predicted that diesel tightness will persist in coming months and prices will remain elevated.