ExxonMobil stock has risen 12% over the past month, outpacing the S&P 500, as the Middle East conflict pushed Brent crude above $100 a barrel. The company’s third-quarter preview indicates that refining margins are driving current performance, even as lower oil prices weigh on upstream earnings.
ExxonMobil’s share price is up in 2026 through Wednesday’s close, positioning the stock near its 52-week high. Four trading sessions accounted for nearly three-quarters of this one-month gain. The preview compares third-quarter results to the second quarter, when the company earned $14.7 billion on an adjusted basis. Management expects lower oil prices to reduce upstream earnings by $1.3 billion. However, higher refining margins are projected to add $4.5 billion to the energy products business, with an additional $0.5 billion from specialty products. ExxonMobil clarifies that these figures are not an earnings forecast, as they exclude operating performance and other variables.
The surge in refining margins is linked to the disruption in fuel flows from the Gulf region, which increases demand for refiners elsewhere. If the conflict de-escalates, ExxonMobil could lose both the high oil price and the elevated refining margin tailwinds simultaneously. Jim Cramer, host of CNBC’s Mad Money, warned that if the war ends on terms acceptable to the United States, oil prices could fall to the fifties.
Despite the high current earnings, analysts view 2026 as a peak year for ExxonMobil. The company trades at 12 times forward earnings, slightly below its five-year average of 13 times. Analysts expect earnings per share to reach $13.28 in 2026, nearly double the $6.99 recorded in 2025, before declining to $10.61 by 2028.
Wall Street has raised price targets in response to the stock’s performance. Since October 15, Barclays lifted its target to $200, JPMorgan to $186, and Morgan Stanley to $185. Bank of America raised its target to $181 while maintaining a Neutral rating. The consensus target has increased from $126 a year ago to $179, with individual estimates ranging from $142 to $206. This consensus aligns closely with ExxonMobil’s closing price on Wednesday.
Chevron has experienced a similar 11% one-month gain driven by the same oil market dynamics. Cramer stated on Mad Money that he believes Chevron is a stronger investment than ExxonMobil. ExxonMobil will report its third-quarter results on October 30. Investors will watch whether the refining boost materializes as previewed and what management indicates about margins entering the fourth quarter. If attacks continue and Brent crude remains above $100 into 2027, current estimates for future earnings may rise.