A Fox News poll now shows Democrat James Talarico holding a slim lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, 51 percent to 48 percent. That gap falls within the margin of error, meaning the poll's statistical uncertainty is wide enough that either candidate could actually be ahead. Texas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in decades, so even a competitive race here carries weight for which party controls the chamber.
What the polling actually shows
Among extremely motivated and interested voters, Talarico's lead widened to 53 percent against 47 percent in the same Fox News survey. The poll found 59 percent of Texas voters are concerned about Paxton's character. By comparison, 47 percent said they worry Talarico is "too extreme" for Texas.
Paxton won a primary runoff against incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn before entering the general election and called the current polling gap "not surprising," pointing out that Talarico had three months to fundraise and campaign while Paxton was still locked in that primary fight.
The money gap
Fundraising totals are the raw dollars a campaign pulls in over a given reporting period. The Texas Tribune reported in late July that the latest Federal Election Commission quarterly filings show Talarico outraised Paxton by more than three to one: $31.6 million versus $9.3 million. Paxton estimated his opponent is spending $2 million a week.
Where the money originates matters here too. Fox News Digital reported in June that donors outside Texas accounted for roughly 50 percent of the funds Talarico received during the final stretch of the first quarter of 2026. During the same period, about 25 percent of Paxton's cash came from out of state. Paxton specifically pointed to California as a source of Talarico's outside support.
Paxton's case to Texas voters
Paxton has built much of his campaign around past statements attributed to Talarico: that God is nonbinary, that there are six sexes, and that reducing meat consumption to fight climate change is "existential." Talarico has acknowledged that some of those comments "missed the mark." Paxton accused his opponent of repositioning on those statements for the general election and said documented votes and past words will reach Texas voters before Election Day.
On his own platform, Paxton outlined a set of tax proposals at the Houston rally: a $50,000 deduction for first-time homebuyers, a $25,000 annual deduction for medical expenses including insurance premiums, a doubled child tax credit, continuation of Trump accounts, and a $5,000 healthy living deduction covering gym expenses, nutrition programs, sports activities, and doctor-prescribed GLP-1 medications. He closed with a direct question to the crowd: "Do we want a socialist Democrat in Texas?"