Israel marks the third anniversary of the Oct. 7 attacks three weeks before an election that will test Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership amid claims he ignored intelligence warnings. While Netanyahu has maintained political stability through ongoing regional conflicts, his refusal to accept responsibility for the security failure remains a central issue for voters.
The opposition, led by former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, accuses Netanyahu of evading accountability. Eisenkot, who lost his son and two nephews during the war in Gaza, views his primary mission as replacing Netanyahu. Every other senior national security official in office at the time of the attacks has resigned, leaving Netanyahu as the sole holdout.
Recent reporting challenges Netanyahu's narrative that he was unaware of the impending threat. According to Haaretz, United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin Zayed alerted Netanyahu to a planned major Hamas operation days before the strikes. Three sources familiar with the matter told Axios that UAE intelligence issued a general alert to Israeli counterparts, and MBZ contacted Netanyahu directly to ensure the information was received. A former U.S. official said then-CIA Director Bill Burns was informed months later by MBZ that he had issued the warning. The New York Times also confirmed these reports.
Additionally, The Atlantic and The Wall Street Journal reported that Netanyahu received a similar warning from Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel. Netanyahu has denied receiving warnings from either the UAE or Egypt and has sued several media outlets and journalists who reported otherwise. He has instead blamed security chiefs for keeping him in the dark, suggesting he could have prevented the massacre had he been alerted earlier.
Polls present a mixed picture for the incumbent. Most surveys show Netanyahu's Likud party holding between 20 and 22 seats in the Knesset, down from 32, with his right-wing coalition projecting 50 to 54 seats. This falls short of the 61 seats required for a majority. The opposition is also unlikely to secure a majority without support from Arab-Israeli parties, which are projected to win a combined 12 to 14 seats. Conversely, polls reported by Channel 14 project a decisive 63-seat majority for Netanyahu's coalition.
Netanyahu has pressured his main opposition to rule out forming a coalition with Arab-Israeli parties, citing a right-wing shift in Israeli society. This pressure could limit Eisenkot's options, potentially forcing a minority government or a hung parliament where Netanyahu remains as caretaker prime minister until another election.
The election outcome also carries legal implications for Netanyahu. Losing power would remove his ability to delay or influence his ongoing corruption trial. A victory, however, might allow him to argue he was acquitted by the people and take stronger action against the proceedings.
President Donald Trump has not yet endorsed Netanyahu, despite repeated questions from Time magazine. Trump privately blamed Netanyahu for the Oct. 7 failures according to two people who discussed the matter with him, though he has maintained a close alliance with the Israeli leader during recent conflicts with Iran.