Marvell Technology shares closed 22.6% below their June high on October 21, reflecting a market valuation that heavily assumes continued data center growth through fiscal 2028. The stock has returned 17.0% over the past three months, outperforming the S&P 500's 5.0% return over the same period, yet investors remain divided on whether the current price fully captures the company's future potential.
At the October 21 close, Marvell traded at 23.2 times its sales over the past twelve months. This valuation is below the 28.3 times recorded at the end of June 2026, a figure that marked the highest level in ten years of quarter-end readings. Despite the lower multiple, the company's operating margin stood at 16.8% for the twelve months ended August 1, 2026, compared to 6.0% a year earlier. This margin remains below the company's historical peak of 21.9%, recorded for the twelve months ended in fiscal Q1 2019.
The current stock price largely reflects performance in Marvell's data center segment, which accounts for 79% of total revenue. Management reported on the August 27, 2026 call that data center sales grew 46% year over year in fiscal Q2 2027, outpacing the company's overall growth. For fiscal Q3 2027, management guided for revenue of $3.15 billion plus or minus 5%, while analysts expect approximately $3.22 billion. Management also projected data center revenue to grow roughly 75% year over year in this quarter.
Long-term expectations have shifted upward recently. On the August 27 call, management raised its fiscal 2028 revenue outlook to about $18 billion, up from $16.5 billion previously. At its October 6 Investor Day, the company lifted this figure again to about $20 billion. With a market value of $220 billion, Marvell trades at about 11 times this fiscal 2028 outlook. Although the company expanded its agreement with a key hyperscaler, management stated that this deal does not increase the fiscal 2028 target, with significant revenue impacts expected in fiscal 2029 and beyond.
Recent earnings reports have triggered volatile stock reactions. Shares fell 12.3% in the two trading days following the August 2026 report, even though revenue beat guidance midpoints. In contrast, the stock rose 3.2% after the May 2026 report and surged 22.4% following the March 2026 report.
The upcoming fiscal Q3 2027 results, expected in November 2026, will serve as a key test for current investors. Revenue near the $3.15 billion guide might suggest recent buyers entered late, while results significantly above analyst expectations coupled with a raised fiscal 2028 outlook would indicate earlier positioning was correct.