Israeli voters face a Tuesday election that serves as a direct referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with outcomes determined by coalition mathematics and public fatigue with ongoing conflict. This is the first vote since the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, and the start of the U.S.-Israeli joint war against Iran in February.
The voting system allocates the Knesset's 120 seats through proportional representation, requiring parties to secure at least 3.25% of the national vote to enter parliament. Because outright majorities are rare, the president tasks a Knesset member with assembling a 61-seat coalition. Recent polls indicate that both Netanyahu's bloc and the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot fall short of this threshold, making smaller parties decisive.
Netanyahu returned to power in late 2022 with an alliance of right-wing, far-right, and ultra-Orthodox parties. That coalition has faced strain over Gaza ceasefire negotiations and the conscription of ultra-Orthodox men. László Csicsmann, a Middle East expert at Corvinus University of Budapest, told CNBC that the "seven-front war" launched by Netanyahu has worn down Israeli society. He noted that economic issues are dominating the campaign due to military spending reaching around 8% of gross domestic product and widespread calls for reservists.
Military service remains a central flashpoint. It is compulsory for most Jewish, Druze, and Circassian Israelis over 18, while most Arab Israelis are exempt. The conscription of ultra-Orthodox men is a persistent legal and political dispute. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party proposes integrating ultra-Orthodox and Arab communities into compulsory service, a stance that contrasts with the current government's approach.
Daniel Schatz, a political scientist and former visiting scholar at Harvard, Stanford, and Georgetown, stated that the stakes include restoring confidence in government and determining how military power translates into lasting security. He argued that while Netanyahu’s supporters view him as an experienced leader confronting formidable threats, critics point to failures in preparedness and accountability. Schatz added that dissatisfaction with Netanyahu does not equate to support for the political left; some voters seek different leadership to achieve security more effectively.
Farzan Sabet, senior analyst at Eurasia Group, described the main competing blocs as "quite hawkish on security," with comparable policies on confronting Iran and Hezbollah. However, he suggested a new anti-Netanyahu coalition might prefer to review strategy toward Tehran before major escalation. Such a government could be more conciliatory regarding military action in Gaza to improve U.S. ties and international standing. Sabet also predicted this bloc would likely reduce activity in the West Bank, a territory west of the Jordan River where settlements have grown for decades, and police settler violence against Palestinians.
Violence and forced displacement by settlers have recently drawn condemnation from U.S. lawmakers. Despite these policy distinctions, Sabet cautioned that the race remains tight with several possible outcomes. Meanwhile, reports indicate the U.S. and Israel have drawn up plans for possible renewed strikes on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterm elections, while Iran's army chief has declared readiness for "asymmetric warfare." Netanyahu’s Likud party runs on a manifesto promising "security without compromise" and maintaining a free economy, while Eisenkot’s party aims to make Israel "democratic, powerful, progressive and secure."