Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, stated that Bitcoin's weekly close above its 50-week moving average marks a historical point where the bear market bottom is typically established. The cryptocurrency closed at $81,159 on September 20, surpassing the moving average, which Thorn noted was around $78,786 at the time. As of September 21, 2026, Bitcoin trades at $84,702, a 5.3% increase in 24 hours but a decline of about 3% year-to-date.
Thorn clarified that his assessment does not predict an immediate price rise. Instead, he believes the $57,718 low recorded on July 1 is unlikely to be broken. The 50-week moving average is calculated from the last 50 weekly closing prices and moves slowly, making it a tool for identifying long-term trends. Bitcoin fell below this average in November 2025 after reaching a record price of $126,198. It remained below the line for 45 weeks before hitting the July low, which stood 54% under the all-time high.
Historical data supports Thorn's view that a weekly close above this average often follows a stable low. In four of the last five bear markets, the first weekly close above the 50-week moving average preceded a low that held steady. The exceptions occurred during the 2021 to 2022 period, when Bitcoin crossed above the average twice but subsequently made lower lows. According to Ryan Lee of Bitget, these were the only two instances among Bitcoin's 13 crossings that resulted in lower lows. That decline was driven by major events, including the collapses of the Luna stablecoin, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX.
The historical precedents show varied outcomes after such reclaims. In October 2015, Bitcoin closed above the average near $250 and never returned to its $160 low, soaring to about $20,000 by December 2017. In May 2019, after reclaiming the average near $5,500, prices tumbled back down within six months despite the December 2018 low holding through the March 2020 downturn. In May 2020, Bitcoin regained the average and surged to $69,000 by November 2021. In March 2023, it reclaimed the average near $28,000 and stayed above it for over two years.
Thorn compared the current cycle to the bear markets of 2015 and 2018, noting similarities in how they bottomed out. He highlighted that Bitcoin climbed 29% in the 35 days leading up to September 21. However, the current market dynamics differ from past rallies because they include spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury buyers. This larger but potentially slower-moving buyer base suggests a held low and a slower climb rather than a rapid surge.
The decisive test is the weekly close on September 27. If Bitcoin closes above $78,786 again, it confirms the trend, with the next target being the January high of $94,820. A close below that level would render the September 20 close a one-week fluke, similar to the false signals in 2022. Currently, Bitcoin is 11% below its January high and 33% below the record $126,198 from October 2025.