The Cook Political Report has shifted its rating of the New Hampshire Senate race from lean Democrat to toss-up, a move that signals a tightening contest between Republican nominee John E. Sununu and incumbent Representative Chris Pappas. This change follows a similar reclassification by Inside Elections earlier this month, marking a rare shift in favor of the GOP in a political cycle where the party faces significant headwinds. The race to succeed retiring Senator Jeanne Shaheen is one of approximately a dozen contests that will determine if Republicans retain control of the Senate.
Sununu, who is running to return to Congress after 18 years away, is utilizing an anti-incumbent strategy typically associated with Democrats. In an interview with Fox News Digital, Sununu argued that Pappas has spent eight years in Washington without delivering results for the state. "He has attempted very little in Congress. He's accomplished even less," Sununu said, criticizing the four-term congressman's effectiveness. Sununu pointed to New Hampshire's ranking as dead last in highway funding in New England as evidence of Pappas's ineffectiveness on the Transportation Committee. While federal figures indicate New Hampshire receives some of the lowest total and per-capita levels of federal funding for roads and bridges in the country, the state does not rank last in every metric.
Pappas’s campaign disputes these claims, highlighting legislative efforts such as the Highway Fair Share Act, which he introduced earlier this year to increase federal infrastructure funding for New Hampshire. Campaign Manager Rachel Petri stated that Pappas has secured millions of dollars for road and bridge repairs and expanded healthcare benefits for veterans. Petri also contrasted Pappas’s record with Sununu’s history of voting to cut Medicare and supporting privatization of Social Security. Sununu, however, emphasized his experience writing legislation under both Democratic and Republican administrations, as well as his recent work in the private sector and education.
The race is intensifying with significant financial involvement from outside groups. Pappas warned that Republican-aligned super PACs are pouring millions of dollars into the state, claiming they are outspending his campaign three-to-one on television advertising. In response, a Democrat-aligned super PAC began airing ads suggesting Sununu profited from lobbying firms after leaving the Senate. The campaign has also become entangled with President Donald Trump’s approval ratings, which are low in New Hampshire. Pappas labeled Sununu as Trump’s "hand-picked candidate," noting Sununu received an endorsement from the president earlier this year. Sununu rejected the personal connection, stating he has never met the president, but asserted he would be a more effective voice with the current administration than Pappas.