Brazil holds its presidential election on Sunday, pitting President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro in a contest that has drawn significant attention from the White House. The race serves as a test of President Donald Trump's influence in Latin America's largest country, with potential consequences for the region and global climate policy.
The U.S. became involved in the domestic dispute after the Trump administration imposed additional 25% tariffs on certain Brazilian goods this summer. In response, Lula accused the American leader of interference in Brazil's affairs. Both campaigns have since used the dispute as political ammunition. Trump stated on Thursday that he is following the election very closely and called it very important, although he did not endorse a specific candidate.
Flávio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence after being convicted of plotting a military coup to overturn Brazil's 2022 election. Jair Bolsonaro is under house arrest due to health issues and is barred from running for office. His son has pledged to continue his father's political legacy, positioning himself as the heir to a right-wing populist movement.
The confrontation escalated in 2025 when the U.S. targeted Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the prosecution of the elder Bolsonaro. The U.S. revoked his visa and sanctioned him, though those sanctions were later lifted.
Recent polling shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro essentially even in a potential runoff. A candidate must win more than 50% of valid votes to avoid a second round; if no candidate achieves this threshold, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff on October 25.
The election also carries weight for environmental policy, as nearly 60% of the Amazon rainforest is located in Brazil. The forest stores large amounts of carbon and helps regulate the climate. Deforestation in Brazil fell by roughly half since Lula returned to office, although his record is complicated by support for expanded oil development. In contrast, Flávio Bolsonaro has backed loosening environmental regulations and stated in August that he does not believe climate change is real.
Lula, an 80-year-old president, is campaigning on his economic and social policy record, emphasizing state-led national development, income redistribution, and the continuation of welfare programs. Flávio Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old lawyer who has represented Rio de Janeiro in Brazil's Senate since 2019, is campaigning on conservative social policies, tax cuts, and a tougher approach to crime.
Bolsonaro has pointed to Argentina as a model for closer bilateral trade with the U.S. He met with Trump at the White House in May and pledged that Brazil would join Trump's "Shield of the Americas" initiative if he wins, a grouping that includes Argentina and El Salvador. In July, libertarian Argentine President Javier Milei appeared with Bolsonaro at a political event in São Paulo to support his candidacy. Bolsonaro has also praised El Salvador President Nayib Bukele's security crackdown and vowed to build many prisons if elected.